ON THE BALL: Right now, the bookies are tipping the Springboks as fourth in line to win the World Cup – but they may have got it wrong, speculates Lucky Maree.
Betting companies like Ladbrokes and Hollywoodbets don’t often get it wrong.
As things stand, half a year ahead of the World Cup in France in August and September, they have France as out and out favourites followed by New Zealand with Ireland in third and South Africa fourth.
South Africa fourth? Maybe not.
There are a number of important reasons why France are the hot favourite. It is very difficult to ignore the way they dismantled England in the Six Nations, scoring seven magnificent tries and doing it at Twickenham. When France are playing like that they are unstoppable.
France also has a massive home-ground advantage for the World Cup. There is not a more obnoxious, partisan, downright aggressive crowd than the French. They boo, hiss, and whistle ceaselessly, which may be decisive.
They place incredible pressure on the referees and in a tournament that may very well be decided by a red card decision, that may prove to be crucial.
Of course, France has some of the best players in the world. Antoine Dupont is already considered to be one of the best scrumhalves in the history of the game. Fullback Thomas Ramos as fullback may soon reach that status as well.
So why should they not be the favourites?
The team that wins the World Cup will have to play great games one after the other. As always, the question is, can France play six great matches in a row? They didn’t in the Six Nations and there is nothing in their history that says they can.
The All Blacks have not had a good run with coach Ian Foster at the helm. As always, when they are good, they are brilliant, but their performance has lately been described as “soft”.
And now that bunch of indecisive non-managers at New Zealand Rugby have made their biggest screw-up of all. Instead of firing poor old hapless Ian Foster and bringing in Scott “Razor” Robertson immediately, Foster will have to put on a brave face for half a year. Yet, they expect him to win!
Ireland, with coach Andy Farrell, surely can’t be third with the bookies!
Ireland has two problems, though. After their magnificent performance in the Six Nations, the question about them peaking too soon raises its ugly head. Even their win against England was already a flat performance. Are they descending on the other side of the hill? Probably not, but it is a question.
Johnny Sexton is injured. Unpleasant, belligerent man that he appears to be to his opponents, he is a true inspiration to Ireland – and replacing a flyhalf must be the toughest job of all. They will probably bet on him being fit and that could be a serious mistake.
Finally, the Springboks. Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber have played the game – so far – like chess masters.
Of course, it’s early days, but they have not done anything wrong so far.
The woeful performance of the South African teams in the URC and especially the Heineken Cup may be a serious omen, but the problems of picking A, B and even C teams is not an issue at the World Cup and neither is travelling.
Of course, there are already, and will be, serious problems before August. You simply do not replace an Eben Etzebeth easily, but taking an unfit player to the World Cup is fatal. Trust Erasmus and Nienaber to do the right thing.
And if you’re desperate for money, now is the time to put your house in hock – and bet it all on the Springboks. At odds of 4:1 you could buy four new houses after the tournament.
Pictured above: Springboks lifting the World Cup trophy
Image source: SA Rugby
