By Zukile Majova
The fight for control of KwaZulu-Natal remains a two-horse race, with the IFP and the ANC the main contenders on election day.
It was previously thought that Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto Wesizwe would be the party to beat in the province.
But infighting in the MK has disrupted its campaign, while the party has also not yet set up structures in many parts of the province.
This has ruled the MK party out of the main race for power in the province.
But the MK party is among the three parties hoping to be the main kingmakers in KZN if neither the ANC nor the IFP secures a clear majority.
These potential kingmakers include the MK party, the DA and the EFF.
The EFF and the DA were the main kingmakers in over a dozen hung municipalities after the 2021 local government elections.
Initially both worked with the IFP to keep the ANC out. But that coalition fell apart when the EFF walked away to form an informal coalition with the ANC.
Coming into the 29 May elections, the ANC finds itself on the back foot, having secured 55.4% of the KZN vote in the 2019 elections but dropping to 41,44% in the local government elections in 2021.
Meanwhile, the IFP has been playing catch-up to the ANC over the past decade, having secured just 14,5% of the vote in 2019 but 24,2% in the 2021 elections.
The IFP coalition with the DA in KZN has been beating the ANC and EFF in by-elections for the past two years, and the resurgent IFP now runs most of the municipalities in the province.
The entry of the MK party has however muddied the waters for all the main parties.
From the DA, the MK party has limited the party’s growth into black middle-class areas in Durban, Pietermaritzburg, Richards Bay and the holiday towns on the south coast.
From the ANC, the MK party has taken a chunk of disgruntled supporters in eThekwini and Pietermaritzburg.
From the EFF, the MK party has taken potential supporters, as it is now the new official home for disgruntled ANC supporters who would have otherwise jumped ship to join the EFF.
From the IFP, the MK party has made little inroads, as IFP supporters have rejected Zuma’s politics for decades with his neighbours in Nkandla voting overwhelmingly for the IFP even when Zuma was the head of state.
So, based on preparations, structures on the ground and the ability to send their supporters to the voting stations on election day, the race for control of KZN remains between the ANC and the IFP.
Pictured above: It’s a two-horse race between Thami Ntuli (IFP) and Siboniso Duma (ANC).
Source: X
