Zukile Majova
Road to 2024: Recent by-elections show that the ANC’s survival will depend on its success in rural South Africa, despite the party’s dismal record of service delivery, says Zukile Majova.
Recent by-election results are showing clear signs that rural South Africa will be the last political bastion of the ANC government.
This is despite a poor record of service delivery, poor infrastructure, high levels of unemployment and numerous unfulfilled promises.
Even without access to clean drinking water, ANC loyalists in these parts still vote ANC.
These days the ruling party struggles to secure convincing victories in major cities like Johannesburg, Cape Town, Pretoria and parts of Durban.
However, it is still registering over 70% of the votes in parts of the Eastern Cape, Limpopo and Mpumalanga.
Most of rural KwaZulu-Natal meanwhile is the preserve of the IFP.
The results of last week’s by-elections confirm this trend with ANC councillor candidate Mandlakazi Mabuda winning Ward 43 in Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality by 69.11%.
Another ANC candidate, Nomvula Elizabeth Dlamini, won by 72.9% in Ward 03, in Chief Albert Luthuli Municipality in Mpumalanga.
Ordinarily a low voter turnout in urban areas tends to favour the smaller parties. But not so in largely rural provinces.
The turnout was 28.3% in Gqebera and 43.9% in the Mpumalanga by-election.
It’s a different story in the Western Cape where the DA’s Christo Jacoby Boks won Ward 07 in Matzikama Municipality by 62%.
In its response, the ANC called on its voters to hit the polls and fight against low voter turnout.
With all roads pointing to the 2024 general election being the most significant for the ANC, the party believes a higher turnout could help it stay above 50%.
So far anecdotal evidence suggests the party will lose Gauteng province, the country’s economic hub, and even lose its majority stake in the national vote.
Growing unemployment, rising food prices, fuel price increases, load shedding and various government taxes on personal earnings are expected to dominate the national discourse between now and the national general elections.
All these spell doom for the ruling party.
