By Anita Dangazele
- The South African Weather Service says a very strong El Niño is forming, which usually means less rain and hotter temperatures for South Africa.
- The last time an El Niño this strong hit, in 2015/16, it caused a severe drought and dangerous heatwaves across the region.
South Africa is heading into a hot, dry summer, the South African Weather Service has warned, and this year’s weather pattern could turn out to be one of the strongest ever recorded.
The warning is about something called El Niño, a natural weather pattern caused by warmer than usual water in part of the Pacific Ocean, far away, but with a real effect on our weather here. When El Niño is strong, South Africa usually gets less rain and hotter temperatures than normal. The Weather Service says this year’s El Niño is already stronger than what’s needed to count as “very strong,” and it could still get stronger before summer even properly begins.
This isn’t a sure thing. Not every El Niño brings drought, in 1997/98, a very strong one actually brought slightly more rain than usual to parts of the country. But the two worst El Niño events in memory, in 1982/83 and again in 2015/16, both caused serious droughts. The Weather Service says below-normal rain is still the most likely outcome for South Africa this summer, from October right through to January next year.
What worries the Weather Service most is the heat. It says temperatures are likely to be higher than normal over the same period. Combined with the world generally getting warmer each year, 2027 could turn out to be the hottest year South Africa has ever recorded. The last time a very strong El Niño hit, in 2015/16, it brought severe heatwaves to the whole region. Now, more than a decade later and with the region already warmer than it was then, the Weather Service says another round of serious heatwaves is a real possibility, and this time they could be even worse.
The Weather Service is asking people, especially those working outdoors or living in areas that already struggle with water access, to keep an eye on its monthly and daily forecasts so they can prepare for extreme heat or water shortages before they hit.
Pictured above: SAWS warns of extremely hot and dry weather this summer.
Image source: Pexels
