Podcast: The Dark Art of Election Polling

Rob Rose from the Financial Mail and Zukile Majova from Scrolla.Africa are joined by Gareth van Onselen, CEO of Victory Research, for episode 27 of Sharp Sharp.

Gareth lifts the lid on election polling: how samples are chosen, why turnout changes the numbers, what margins of error mean and why polls are snapshots rather than predictions.

They unpack the ANC’s turnout problem, Helen Zille and the DA’s prospects in Johannesburg, the coalition picture in Tshwane, and the rise of MK and the Patriotic Alliance.

The team also examines the ANC’s candidate-list failures and why voters, politicians and journalists often see what they want to see in a poll.