- The maximum retail price of paraffin is R31.82 a litre, after rising R4.77 on 7 October. In January it was R15.98.
- Early data shows paraffin priced R2.00 a litre below cost on 7 October, so another rise in November is possible.
The most a shop can charge for a litre of paraffin is now R31.82, almost double what it was in January.
On Wednesday, 7 October, the maximum retail price rose by R4.77 a litre, from R27.05 to R31.82. At wholesale level, which is the price shops buy at, it rose by R3.58 to R24.47 in Gauteng. That was the biggest rise of any liquid fuel in October. Petrol 95 went up R3.33 and diesel went up R2.84 or R3.24, according to figures the Central Energy Fund released on behalf of the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources.
The retail maximum moves by more than the wholesale price. At every adjustment since February, it has moved by about a third more. In July, for example, the wholesale price dropped by R5.23 and the retail maximum by R6.97.
The price has swung widely this year. On 7 January the maximum was R15.98. It jumped R15.60 in April, to R31.47, and rose another R5.63 in May, to R37.10, its highest this year. It then fell to R29.15 in June and R22.18 in July, and has risen every month since: R24.21 in August, R27.05 in September and R31.82 now.
That is almost double January’s price, but still R5.28 below May’s peak. For someone buying paraffin in 5-litre containers, it works out to about R159 for 5 litres now, against about R80 in January.
Fewer households use paraffin than before. Statistics South Africa’s 2023 General Household Survey found that 2.5% of households, about 1 in 40, used it as their main fuel for cooking. In 2002 it was 16%.
The government cut the general fuel levy on petrol and diesel from 1 April and phased the cut out by the end of June. Paraffin carries no fuel levy, according to the Central Energy Fund’s price structure, so there was no levy to cut.
Early data suggests another increase may come in November, but it is too early to say. The fund’s daily sheet shows that on 7 October the paraffin price was R2.00 a litre too low to cover its cost. When that happens, the price is adjusted later to close the gap.
The sheet’s average for 2 to 7 October is higher, at R4.25. But only 7 October was measured against the new price that took effect that day. Scrolla’s calculation from the sheet shows the three earlier days were measured against the old price, so the average overstates the gap. The department bases each adjustment on the average over a whole period. For October it was 25 days, from 28 August to 1 October.
The next adjustment normally takes effect on the first Wednesday of the month, which is 4 November.
