- Petrol 95 could rise by around R3.06 a litre in October, pushing the inland price to nearly R29.98, an all-time high.
- Diesel is projected to rise even further, potentially topping R33 a litre inland, driven by oil prices near $100 a barrel.
Petrol is set to climb to nearly R30 a litre next week, which would make it the most expensive fuel South Africa has ever paid, according to the latest projections.
This comes straight after September’s already steep increase, when petrol rose by about R1.30 a litre and diesel by up to R3.15, an increase the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources blamed mainly on rising international oil prices.
Now, fresh data from the Central Energy Fund, reported on 28 September, points to an even bigger jump. Petrol 95 could rise by around R3.06 a litre, pushing the inland price to about R29.98, just cents away from R30. Diesel is projected to climb even further, with estimates putting the wholesale price between R31.80 and R33.15 a litre, depending on the grade.
The main driver is the price of oil on the world market. Brent crude, the benchmark used to calculate South Africa’s fuel prices, has risen from around $86 a barrel in late August to close to $100 a barrel by late September, driven by the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran and concerns over oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. A weaker rand has made the impact worse, since South Africa buys its fuel in US dollars.
It’s important to understand these are still projections, not the final price. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources only announces the official adjustment in the first days of October, based on the full month’s average oil price and exchange rate, with the new price taking effect on Wednesday, 7 October. The numbers can still shift, up or down, before then, though the trend over the past month has moved consistently in one direction: up.
For a driver filling a 50-litre tank with petrol, this increase alone could add more than R150 to a single fill-up. For anyone driving a diesel vehicle doing regular distances, the monthly cost could rise by over R1,000. And because diesel powers most trucks and taxis, an increase this size tends to ripple through to food prices and transport fares in the weeks that follow.
This article has been updated for clarity.
