- Central Energy Fund data pointed to November rises of R4.28 to R4.57 for petrol and R2.56 to R2.91 for diesel.
- The latest daily figures show petrol under-recovering by about R1.35 a litre and diesel by almost nothing, and the numbers are unaudited.
Another fuel price increase may be coming in November, but the latest figures suggest it could be much smaller than first feared.
Each month, the Central Energy Fund tracks the gap between what South Africans pay at the pump and what it actually costs to bring fuel into the country. When the pump price is too low, that gap is called an under-recovery. If it stays open until the end of the month, the price is adjusted to close it. October’s new prices took effect on Wednesday, 7 October, so the count for November has only just started.
Early reports this week, using the first days of data, pointed to November increases of R4.28 to R4.57 a litre for petrol and R2.56 to R2.91 for diesel.
TopAuto reported that petrol would then reach R34.82 a litre and diesel R36.20. Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop said diesel has doubled this year, from R17 a litre in January to more than R34 in October. She said it is still early in the month.
The Central Energy Fund’s figures for 7 October show a much smaller gap. Petrol 95 was under-recovering by R1.35 a litre and petrol 93 by R1.27. For diesel the gap had almost closed. Diesel with 0.05% sulphur was under by 1 cent, and diesel with 0.005% sulphur was over-recovering by 2 cents.
The average since 2 October is higher, at R3.77 for petrol 95 and R3.54 for petrol 93. For the two types of diesel it is R1.92 and R2.18, and for paraffin R4.25. That is because the first days of the month had bigger gaps.
Most of the gap comes from higher international fuel prices, which make up R3.30 of the R3.77 average for petrol 95. The remaining 47 cents comes from a weaker rand, which was R16.62 to the dollar on 7 October. South Africa buys its fuel in dollars.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has said the daily figures are unaudited and only a guide. The final price depends on the whole month’s average oil price and exchange rate, so the outlook can still change either way. The adjustment normally takes effect on the first Wednesday of the month, which is 4 November.
Diesel is the fuel most taxis and trucks run on, so it is the number to watch for fares and food prices.
