- Food and drink inflation was only 1.2% in September, while a low-income basket rose 1.3% over the year to October.
- Core foods in the household basket rose 3.7%, with onions, potatoes, tomatoes and white bread recording much bigger increases.
South Africa’s food inflation numbers look surprisingly good.
But they do not tell the whole story for families living on tight budgets.
Statistics South Africa says food and non-alcoholic drink prices were only 1.2% higher in September than a year earlier.
Maize meal was actually 8.6% cheaper and cereal products overall were down 1.9%.
Then the October Household Affordability Index arrived.
Its average basket of 44 foods cost R5,512.53, only 1.3% more than a year ago.
That also sounds manageable.
But inside the basket, the foods that families prioritise tell a different story.
The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group identifies a group of core foods that households tend to buy first because they form the base of daily meals.
They include maize meal, rice, flour, sugar, potatoes, onions, chicken and bread.
Together they cost R2,961.75 in October and made up 54% of the total household food basket.
Their cost was 3.7% higher than a year earlier — almost three times the increase in the full basket.
The differences between individual foods were even bigger.
Onions cost more than twice what they did a year ago. Potatoes were up about 33% and tomatoes about 21%.
White bread was around 8% more expensive.
At the same time, maize meal and rice were cheaper than they were a year earlier.
That mix helps explain why a low average inflation number can feel very different at the kitchen table.
A family does not buy every food in equal quantities.
When the foods people cannot easily avoid become expensive, cheaper prices somewhere else in the basket may not help enough.
The affordability group says these core foods have to be bought first.
“These foods must be bought regardless of price escalations,” its October report says.
The pressure then moves to the rest of the plate.
When staple foods take more of the available money, the group says families cut back on foods such as meat, eggs, dairy products, fruit and vegetables.
That is where the affordability problem becomes a nutrition problem.
Its basic nutritious food basket for a family of seven cost R6,692.25 in October.
That is almost R1,180 more than the R5,512.53 household food basket.
The Stats SA and affordability index numbers should not be treated as the same measure.
Stats SA tracks prices across a broad national consumer basket, while the affordability index tracks a specific list of foods bought by lower-income households.
They also cover slightly different periods.
But together they show why one headline food inflation number cannot describe what every family experiences.
For a household buying a lot of bread, potatoes and onions, low food inflation can still come with a painful grocery bill.
