Letter From Mt Frere: Zukile Majova says the latest by-election results tell one story – the electorate, especially the black middle class, is turning away from the ruling party.
That the ANC is on a downward spiral is no longer just a debate in South Africa; it’s now a statement of fact.
The question is whether the element of hope for a new dawn brought by President Cyril Ramaphosa could save the ANC in 2024.
Every election or by-election in the country shows results that confirm that the demise of the ANC is now in full swing.
Ward by ward the electorate is rejecting the ANC – especially in the urban areas of Cape Town, Johannesburg, Durban and Port Elizabeth.
Take for instance the results of this week’s by-elections in three provinces, where the DA and the EFF took on the ruling party in a fight for five wards previously controlled by the ANC.
The opposition took 40% of the spoils, with both the EFF and the DA winning a ward each and the ANC retaining three wards.
More by-elections in Mpumalanga, Western Cape and the Eastern Cape are scheduled for 6 July 2022.
But the main interest now is the 2024 general elections when Gauteng is expected to be the main battle ground and pundits expect the ANC to lose its national majority.
Ramaphoria saved the ANC last time in the 2019 elections when the party won with a reduced majority – from 62.15% in 2014 to 57.50%.
Now with rising unemployment, the escalating price of fuel, food prices, persistent load shedding and corruption in the public sector, public confidence in both Ramaphosa and the ANC continues to fall.
Another interesting dynamic of the coming elections will be the introduction of independent candidates who will be boasted by the support and resources of Mmusi Maimane’s organisation, One SA.
It seems a foregone conclusion that Gauteng will be governed by a coalition of opposition parties including the DA, EFF, Action SA and some independent candidates.
That scenario would confirm the reality that the black middle class is walking away from the ruling party, pushing its main support to rural provinces like Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape.
