South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has predicted that the ANC will get around 42% of the vote in the national election.
This projection, which has a 2% margin of error, was made when 8.5% of polling stations had declared their results.
The CSIR shared this projection with public broadcaster SABC and confirmed the details to Reuters.
The projection is part of the CSIR’s tradition of using a statistical model to predict election outcomes, a model they have used since the 1999 general elections.
Over the past 10 elections, including national and municipal levels, the CSIR has used its election prediction model to predict results with high accuracy.
Dr Thulani Dlamini, CSIR’s Chief Executive Officer, explained that the model gets good predictions from a small sample of results.
“The CSIR’s election prediction model is not a polling system but uses statistical and mathematical analysis to predict election outcomes. It showcases how statistical clustering and some mathematical algorithms can achieve good predictions from a small sample of results,” Dlamini said.
As more voting districts report their results, the model’s predictions are expected to become more stable and accurate.
Compiled by staff writer
Pictured above: ANC.
Image source: File
