Arthur Greene
Why did countries originally thought to be most vulnerable to Covid-19 have the lowest death rates on the continent?
And why were countries in Africa predicted as being better prepared for a pandemic the worst hit by Covid-19?
New research, supported by the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa Region, has found countries with more urban populations and strong international travel links were the hardest hit.
Most notably, South Africa was touted to fare better against the virus than other poorer countries on the continent because of its strong health system.
However, South Africa had by far the highest mortality rates on the continent across both the first and second waves of the virus.
The study found that early models predicted the opposite of what actually came to pass, and the WHO says that this highlights the importance of African-based research.
“The early models which predicted how Covid-19 would lead to a massive number of cases in Africa were largely the work of institutions not from our continent,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa.
“This collaboration between researchers in Africa and Europe underlines the importance of anchoring analysis on Africa’s epidemics firmly here,” he said.
Dr Moeti also co-authored the study, which is titled “Predictors of Covid-19 Epidemics in Countries of the World Health Organization African Region” and was published in the Nature Medicine Journal.
Uganda, for example, had the lowest death rate from Covid on the continent during the first wave after it was touted to be one of the most vulnerable countries.
“These findings challenge our understanding of vulnerability to pandemics,” said Professor Mark Woolhouse, another author of the study.
“Our results show that we should not equate high levels of preparedness and resilience with low vulnerability.”
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